Spanish Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez has been reelected as prime minister in a highly fragmented parliament, securing an absolute majority. In order to garner support, Sánchez made deals with six small parties, including two Catalan separatist groups. One of the controversial agreements reached was the push for an amnesty for those involved in Catalonia’s failed secession attempt in 2017, including former president Carles Puigdemont.
Sánchez’s new government will lead a minority leftist coalition with the anti-austerity Sumar party. However, they lack the majority necessary to pass bills on their own. To compensate, they will rely on the constant support of the Junts party, led by Puigdemont, the Republic Left of Catalonia, and two Basque parties.
While completing a full four-year term may pose difficulties for Sánchez, he does have the advantage of being able to call a snap election if he sees an opportunity to gain more seats. It is highly unlikely that Sánchez’s supporters would align with the Popular Party, due to its associations with the far-right Vox party, which opposes regional governments and Catalan and Basque nationalism.
The Catalan separatist parties have warned that they seek more than just an amnesty, as their ultimate goal is to hold a binding referendum on independence for Catalonia. Furthermore, competition between the two Catalan parties in upcoming regional elections, to be held by 2025, could impact their support for Sánchez.
Amid infighting between Junts and the Republican Left for Catalonia, public support for the independence movement has waned. As a result, the separatist push has lost momentum and tensions have shifted to Madrid, with violent protests erupting against the amnesty.
While a Socialist government may not be in the best interest of Puigdemont’s party, it is currently the only viable path towards achieving the amnesty they desire. The political landscape in Spain remains fraught with complexities and uncertainties, and it will be interesting to see how Sánchez navigates these challenges during his tenure as prime minister.
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